Global South competitiveness: where South African companies can win

A CEO lens on trade shifts, regional supply chains and new markets

For South African CEOs, the Global South is no longer a “future opportunity”. It is becoming the operating context for growth.

The old globalisation playbook was built on efficiency: source from the lowest-cost geography, manufacture at scale, and sell into mature markets. The emerging playbook is different. It is built on resilience, regional depth, geopolitical optionality, sustainability, and proximity to fast-growing demand. McKinsey’s 2025 update on global trade found that trade has continued to reconfigure along geopolitical lines, with the “geopolitical distance” of trade declining by about 7% between 2017 and 2024. In plain terms: companies are trading more with partners that feel more politically, economically, or strategically compatible.

That shift matters profoundly for South Africa. BCG argues that the world is entering a new era of global trade in which the Global South is becoming a major engine of growth, with South-South trade projected to grow by 3.8% annually and regional GDP expected to outpace advanced economies, expanding at 4.2% per year to 2029. Yet Africa still accounts for only around 3% of global trade and 4% of global FDI, which means the opportunity is not automatic; it must be captured through strategy, execution and scale.

For South African companies, the question is not simply: “Where can we export more?” The CEO-level question is: where can we build defensible regional positions before competitors from Asia, the Middle East, Europe, North Africa and Latin America do?

The strategic inflection point

PwC Strategy& describes the current environment as a “global geoeconomic reconfiguration” that is creating opportunities for South African exporters because of policy shifts in key trading partners. It adds that for South African business leaders, the changing global order requires “a rethink of how their company makes money and how this will change in the next few years.”

That is the heart of the issue. This is not a trade department conversation. It is a CEO and board conversation.

Africa’s business leaders appear to understand the urgency. PwC’s 29th Global CEO Survey: Africa perspective found that 81% of African CEOs expect economic conditions to improve in their own markets, while 47% are confident about revenue growth over the next 12 months. But the same survey shows a capability gap: only 39% believe they can see disruption coming, and only 45% trust their ability to respond effectively when it hits.

That gap creates a competitive opening. The winners will be the companies that turn uncertainty into a structured growth discipline.

South Africa’s advantage is real — but underused

South Africa already has a strong base from which to compete. Tralac’s 2024 intra-Africa trade update shows that South Africa’s total intra-Africa trade reached US$41.9 billion in 2024, made up of US$31.2 billion in exports and US$10.7 billion in imports. South African exports to Africa increased by 31% between 2015 and 2024, and total trade values rose 7% between 2023 and 2024.

The regional concentration is even more important. The SADC region accounted for 91% of South Africa’s intra-African exports in 2024, and Mozambique, Botswana, Namibia and Zimbabwe absorbed 59% of South Africa’s total exports to Africa.

This tells CEOs two things. First, South Africa is already a regional anchor economy. Second, its immediate competitiveness is strongest where it can serve neighbouring markets with speed, reliability, industrial capability and route-to-market reach.

That is why the Global South opportunity should not be framed as a vague ambition to “expand into Africa”. It should be framed as a portfolio of corridors, sectors and value chains.

Where South African companies can win

1. Regional industrial value chains

South Africa’s strongest export base into Africa remains industrial. Tralac notes that industrial goods dominate South Africa’s exports to Africa, with automotive, iron and steel, machinery, mineral fuels, cereals, plastics and beverages all playing important roles.

This is where South African companies can move from transactional exporting to regional value-chain leadership. The opportunity is not only to sell final products into neighbouring markets, but to supply inputs, components, maintenance, logistics, training, financing and after-sales support.

For CEOs, the strategic question is: which regional value chain can we orchestrate, not merely participate in?

2. Automotive components and mobility ecosystems

South Africa’s automotive sector is exposed to global trade shocks, including tariff changes and market concentration risk. Standard Bank notes that the sector is navigating rising competitive pressures, supply chain disruption and new policy shocks, including a 30% US tariff on South African imports covering vehicles and parts.

But the African market offers a counterweight. Standard Bank reports that Africa imported R42.8 billion worth of South African automotive components in 2023, making it South Africa’s second-largest regional export destination after the EU. It also points to emerging automotive hubs in Morocco, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya and Egypt as sources of demand for South African components, tyres, engine parts and EV-related technologies.

The opportunity is not just vehicle exports. It is the aftermarket, fleet maintenance, charging infrastructure, parts distribution, vehicle finance, assembly partnerships and mobility platforms.

3. Agro-processing and branded consumer goods

Africa’s demographic and urban growth story is familiar, but South African companies should approach it with discipline rather than general enthusiasm. The more specific opportunity lies in processed food, beverages, packaging, cold-chain logistics, quality assurance and brand trust.

Tralac highlights rising exports of cereals, plastics and beverages as a signal of growing intra-SADC demand for processed and fast-moving consumer goods.

This is a CEO opportunity because it combines manufacturing, distribution, pricing, localisation and consumer insight. South African firms that understand route-to-market complexity can outperform global competitors that underestimate fragmented retail, informal trade and working-capital constraints.

4. Mining services, capital equipment and critical minerals beneficiation

Africa’s mineral endowment is becoming more strategically important as the energy transition, AI infrastructure and electrification increase demand for critical inputs. South Africa has a deep base in mining services, engineering, process optimisation, equipment, safety systems, logistics and finance.

BCG argues that African businesses should invest in “trade conscious” value propositions aligned with critical minerals, green value chains, agro-processing, regional manufacturing platforms and sustainability-aligned exports.

For South African CEOs, the question is whether their companies will remain service providers to extractive industries, or become builders of higher-value regional industrial ecosystems around them.

5. Renewable energy, water and infrastructure solutions

Africa’s infrastructure gap is a constraint, but also a market. The UN Economic Commission for Africa recommends that AfCFTA implementation should prioritise robust regional value chains in sectors including agro-processing, automotive, pharmaceuticals and renewable energy, alongside customs modernisation and digital trade facilitation.

South African firms with capabilities in embedded generation, engineering, water treatment, project finance, maintenance, industrial property, digital infrastructure and logistics can build exportable solutions from problems they have already had to solve at home.

The companies that win will package these capabilities into repeatable offerings, not bespoke projects.

AfCFTA: from policy headline to commercial tool

The African Continental Free Trade Area is often discussed as a macroeconomic project. CEOs need to treat it as a commercial instrument.

South Africa began trading under AfCFTA preferential terms on 31 January 2024. The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition reported that from January 2024 to March 2025, South Africa’s exports under AfCFTA preferences reached approximately R820 million, across products including mining equipment, appliances, food items, apparel, plastics and electrical machinery. Main destinations included Ghana, Kenya, Egypt, Rwanda, Cameroon and Algeria.

That is still early-stage, but strategically significant. AfCFTA gives CEOs a framework for market prioritisation, rules-of-origin planning, regional production models and tariff-aware pricing. It should be embedded into strategy, procurement, finance, legal and operations — not left to customs specialists.

The CEO agenda: five moves for the next 12 months

First, build geopolitical muscle. BCG recommends that companies monitor tariff changes, regulatory shifts and emerging trade incentives, and embed scenario planning into strategic decision-making. This should become a board-level capability, not an annual risk slide.

Second, choose corridors before countries. South African firms should map corridors such as Gauteng–Maputo, Durban–Lusaka–DRC, Cape Town–Walvis Bay, and South Africa–Kenya–East Africa. Corridors reveal logistics realities, border frictions, distribution partners, working-capital needs and service gaps more clearly than country-level market maps.

Third, move from exporting to ecosystem-building. Export sales are vulnerable. Ecosystems are defensible. The opportunity is to combine product, service, finance, data, maintenance, local partners and talent development into integrated regional platforms.

Fourth, make resilience measurable. Deloitte’s Fall 2025 Fortune/Deloitte CEO Survey notes that CEOs are focused on cutting costs, addressing pricing and strengthening supply chains for resilience while maintaining investment plans. South African CEOs should measure resilience through indicators such as supplier concentration, lead-time variability, margin by corridor, customs delays, local partner performance, revenue diversification and cash conversion.

Fifth, link competitiveness to sustainability. The UN Global Compact–Accenture 2025 CEO Study found that 99% of CEOs plan to maintain or increase sustainability commitments, prioritising initiatives that deliver measurable business value. In African markets, sustainability will increasingly shape access to capital, customer preference, procurement eligibility and regulatory acceptance.

The leadership question

South African companies have a window of advantage. They understand African operating complexity. They have industrial depth. They have financial, legal, logistics and services capabilities that many markets need. They also have the credibility that comes from having built through volatility.

But the window will not stay open.

As trade reconfigures, capital will look for regional platforms. Supply chains will seek redundancy. African consumers will demand better products and services. Governments will push for localisation and industrialisation. Competitors will move.

The CEOs who win will not be those who simply add “Africa growth” to the strategy deck. They will be those who make the Global South a core strategic lens: where to play, how to win, what to build, which corridors to own, and which capabilities to scale.

South Africa’s opportunity is not to be a passenger in the new Global South economy. It is to become one of its most credible builders.