Global South competitiveness – Where South African companies can win

A CEO lens on trade shifts, regional supply chains and new markets

South African CEOs are entering a trade cycle in which diversification is no longer a diplomatic slogan. It is a competitiveness strategy. The old model — produce locally, sell into familiar US and European channels, and manage volatility as an external risk — is being rewritten by tariffs, geopolitical fragmentation, shifting payment systems, climate rules and the rise of regional trade architecture. South Africa’s own policy response to the 30% US tariff that came into force in August 2025 explicitly placed export-market diversification, support for vulnerable companies and deeper AfCFTA engagement at the centre of resilience planning.

The opportunity is not to abandon traditional markets. The opportunity is to build a broader portfolio. South Africa still trades deeply with China, Germany, the US, the UK, Japan, India and Nigeria, with SARS’ April 2026 merchandise trade overview recording exports of about R190.6 billion, imports of about R175.4 billion and a R15.2 billion trade surplus. But the CEO question is changing: where can South African firms win because of what they already know how to do — and where must they build new muscle?

The answer is not “low-cost manufacturing”. South Africa will rarely win a race to the bottom. It can win as a systems economy: a country able to combine industrial capability, financial services, technical standards, logistics know-how, mining and agricultural depth, brands, compliance discipline and experience operating in difficult emerging-market conditions. The World Bank describes South Africa as one of Africa’s most diversified production bases, spanning mining, agriculture, manufacturing and services, with a deep financial sector, strong firms and a role as a regional transport and logistics hub.

1. Win first in Southern Africa — then scale continentally

For many South African firms, the most bankable Global South opportunity is not far away. It is in the regional supply chains already forming around SADC, SACU, Mozambique, Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe and Zambia.

The evidence is already visible. In 2024, South Africa’s intra-Africa goods trade totalled about US$41.9 billion, including US$31.2 billion in exports and US$10.7 billion in imports. Mozambique, Botswana, Namibia and Zimbabwe absorbed 59% of South Africa’s total exports to Africa, while industrial goods dominated the export basket. SADC accounted for 91% of South Africa’s intra-African exports, with strong flows in mineral fuels, machinery, ores, vehicles, iron and steel, cereals, plastics and beverages.

The CEO implication is clear: treat the region not as an export afterthought, but as a home market. The winners will not simply ship goods across borders. They will build regional inventory systems, after-sales networks, technical-support teams, spares availability, local assembly partnerships, distributor finance and service-level reliability. In industrial inputs, packaging, building materials, mining equipment, vehicle components, processed foods, beverages, chemicals, plastics, electrical equipment and agri-logistics, proximity is an advantage — but only if it is matched with execution.

2. Use AfCFTA as a market-access machine, not a press-release theme

AfCFTA is moving from aspiration to operating detail. South Africa began preferential trade under AfCFTA on 31 January 2024, and the dtic identifies the agreement as a route to expand value-added exports into East, West, Central and North Africa. The same dtic guidance highlights tariff elimination, services liberalisation, rules on non-tariff barriers, customs cooperation, trade facilitation, technical standards and dispute resolution as practical elements of the deal.

This matters because many South African firms are already strong enough to compete in African markets, but not always ready enough. AfCFTA rewards companies that can master rules of origin, tariff schedules, certificates, standards, labelling, customs documentation and partner selection. The World Customs Organization and AfCFTA Secretariat have expanded the AfCFTA e-Tariff Book with a rules-of-origin module, designed to help businesses identify applicable tariff rates and origin requirements by product line and country pair.

The boardroom action is simple: appoint an AfCFTA owner. Every export-capable company should have a product-by-product map showing where tariff preferences apply, which markets have domesticated schedules, what rules of origin must be met, which distributors are credible, and where non-tariff barriers remain. AfCFTA is not one market. It is a sequence of executable market-entry plays.

3. Export services, not just goods

South Africa’s underused advantage is services. The AfCFTA Trade in Services Protocol initially focuses on financial services, communications, transport, tourism and business services — precisely the sectors where South African firms have continental credibility.

This is where the CEO lens should shift. A South African manufacturer entering Kenya, Ghana, Egypt or Côte d’Ivoire should not ask only, “What can we sell?” It should ask, “What system can we operate?” Financing, insurance, compliance, training, maintenance, logistics, data, field service and customer support can be as valuable as the product itself.

Payment infrastructure is also improving. PAPSS says it enables cross-border payments in local currencies, reducing foreign-exchange complexity for participants and offering corporates and SMEs near-instant payments, improved working capital and broader access to African markets. That does not remove currency risk, but it changes the operating model. Companies that can combine trade finance, local-currency pricing, receivables discipline and payment certainty will have an edge over competitors still treating Africa as a hard-currency-only market.

4. Build Global South food and agri-processing champions

South African agriculture is already a Global South competitiveness story. Government reported that Africa remained South Africa’s largest agricultural export destination in 2025, accounting for about 53% of exports, followed by Asia and the Middle East at 17% and the EU at 16%. Strong export products included table grapes, maize, berries, wine, citrus, apples and pears, sugar, nuts, fruit juices and wool. Citrus alone delivered a record 203.4 million 15kg cartons to global markets in the 2025 export season, with South Africa described as the world’s second-largest citrus exporter after Spain.

The opportunity now is to move from commodity strength to branded, processed and logistics-enabled strength. The markets to watch are Africa, the Gulf, India, China and parts of Southeast Asia. These markets want reliable food supply, counter-seasonal fruit, safe products, traceability, halal certification where relevant, cold-chain discipline and pack formats suited to modern retail and informal trade.

China’s temporary zero-tariff preference scheme adds a further opening. From 1 May 2026 to 30 April 2028, qualifying South African goods exported to China can benefit from zero customs duties, subject to tariff schedules, rules of origin and certificates of origin. The dtic has explicitly framed the scheme as an opportunity to expand agricultural, industrial and beneficiated exports.

The winning agribusinesses will not be those that chase every new market at once. They will pick priority corridors, invest in certification and cold chain, secure shelf space or distributor pull, and build resilience around ports, packaging, working capital and phytosanitary compliance.

5. Turn critical minerals into industrial platforms

South Africa’s critical-minerals opportunity is not simply about extracting more. It is about converting resource depth into industrial capability. Cabinet’s approved Critical Minerals and Metals Strategy identifies platinum, manganese, iron ore, coal and chrome ore as high-critical minerals for South Africa, with gold, vanadium, palladium, rhodium and rare earth elements also identified as moderate-to-high criticality. The strategy emphasises exploration, value addition, localisation, R&D, skills, infrastructure, energy security, finance and regulatory harmonisation.

For CEOs, the message is to move down the value curve. The defensible positions are not only in mining output, but in beneficiated materials, process technology, industrial services, maintenance, environmental services, hydrogen-related applications, battery inputs, recycling, testing, certification and regional mineral-processing partnerships.

This is also tied to mobility. South Africa’s EV White Paper aims to transition the automotive industry from internal-combustion production to a dual platform that includes EVs by 2035, while explicitly arguing that decarbonisation should not become de-industrialisation. The Automotive Masterplan 2035 targets 1% of global vehicle production, 60% local content and regional market development, while pointing to platinum group metals, aluminium and certain steel grades as potential areas of sustained automotive advantage.

This is a CEO-level industrial bet: protect current export platforms while building future platforms in components, materials, energy systems, charging infrastructure, hydrogen-linked technologies and regional fleet solutions.

6. Build a new-market discipline for China, India, ASEAN and the Gulf

The Global South is not one demand pool. China is not India. India is not the Gulf. The Gulf is not ASEAN. Each requires different channels, compliance systems, financing models and product-market fit.

Government’s tariff-response strategy specifically named Asia, including Japan, Vietnam and Thailand, as well as the Middle East and India, as markets where South Africa sees growing demand and positive reception to its products. India-South Africa trade is already substantial: IBEF reports bilateral trade of about US$10.06 billion in FY26 to November 2025, with Indian imports from South Africa led by precious stones and metals, mineral fuels and ores.

The opportunity is to deepen beyond raw flows. In China, CEOs should look at tariff-eligible agriculture, beneficiated minerals, industrial inputs and premium consumer niches. In India, the opportunity is in minerals, financial services, insurance, healthcare partnerships, food, jewellery value chains and industrial collaboration. In the Gulf, the play is food security, logistics, property services, tourism, fintech, renewable energy, mining finance and professional services. In ASEAN, South African firms should look for niche positions rather than broad-market entry.

The CEO agenda: from export optimism to execution capability

The companies that win in this cycle will share five habits.

First, they will manage markets as a portfolio. No single destination should carry too much strategic risk. The board should review tariff exposure, currency exposure, customer concentration and route-to-market dependency with the same seriousness as debt and liquidity.

Second, they will treat rules of origin, standards and certification as commercial assets. In the new trade environment, paperwork is not back-office administration. It is market access.

Third, they will invest in regional operating models. Warehouses, spares, local technicians, distributor training, franchising, local assembly and after-sales service will matter more than one-off export shipments.

Fourth, they will align trade and finance. UNCTAD warns that more than 90% of world trade now relies on trade finance, payment systems and financial instruments, making access to affordable credit a decisive factor in who can trade and on what terms. South African firms with strong treasury, credit-risk and working-capital capabilities can turn that into a competitive advantage.

Finally, they will build resilience at home. Energy, ports, rail and water remain competitiveness constraints. The World Bank’s 2025 support for South Africa’s infrastructure reform agenda focuses directly on energy security, freight transport efficiency, Transnet reform and low-carbon transition — all of which are central to export performance.

South African companies do not need to win everywhere. They need to win where their capabilities travel: regional manufacturing, industrial inputs, food systems, mining services, critical-mineral value chains, automotive components, financial services, logistics, business services and branded consumer goods.

The Global South opportunity is real, but it will reward discipline rather than rhetoric. For CEOs, the test is whether diversification becomes a board-level operating system: clear markets, clear products, clear partners, clear compliance, clear finance and clear accountability. That is where South African companies can win.